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#4. Identifying Bargains: Here are some of the fundamental ways to size up a stock. How did legendary investor Warren Buffett make his money? Charles Munger, vice chairman of Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway and a four-decade confidant, offers the following clue: "The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights. How many insights do you need? Well, I’d argue that you don’t need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it." This course can't offer Buffett-style insights, naturally; those you need to come up with on your own. But we can describe some of the basic ways that investors analyze stocks to determine whether or not they are good buys. What follows is an overview of some of the most common methods; we'll have more to say about several of these in future Money 101 lessons. Broadly speaking, there are two ways to approach stock analysis: you can either look at the technical indicators for a company, or at its fundamentals. We can't cover technical analysis in detail here -- it deserves a lesson unto itself -- but in essence, it's a highly mathematical way of evaluating investments. A technical investor might compare the performance of a number of stocks over the past year or so, for example, in order to find ones that appeared to be breaking out of their recent trading ranges, and then buy those issues in what amounts to a momentum play (see "Different strokes"). Or she might construct a computer model of the overall market and its relation to other economic factors, such as industrial capacity utilization, currency values or interest rates. The model would be set up to yield "buy" or "sell" signals for the market as a whole or for individual groups of stocks. Properly used, technical analysis can be a very powerful tool -- especially so for determining when to buy or sell. The alternative approach, fundamental analysis, is pretty good for helping determine what to buy or sell. Here, the aim is to look at the fundamentals of a company and its business outlook in an effort to identify those stocks to which Mr. Market has assigned an unreasonably low value. Here are some of the factors that investors may examine:
You can find measures like these at virtually any online investing site. In fact, thanks to a proliferation of financial data on the Internet, the average person today can tap into information that would have been available only to investment professionals 10 years ago -- and much of it is free. Popular sources include the Personal Finance section of America Online, Yahoo! Finance, Quicken.com, Investor.com, Money.com, Fortune Investor and many brokerage and mutual fund sites. You might use these measures as a gauge to check on a company that you hear described as a good investment. You can also use them to search for stocks directly, using a screening tool like those offered at many sites (Fortune Investor and Microsoft Investor among them). Either way, taken together with the latest news on a company (as opposed to rumors flying around Internet message boards), measures like these can give a rough idea of whether a stock is cheap, fairly priced or overpriced compared to others in its class.
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